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Learning Tech and Gartner Hype Cycle
Gartner recently released its 2009 Hype Cycle for Emerging Markets. Their hype cycle is an interesting way of looking at the market maturity of a technology.
Hutch Carpenter has an interesting post discussing their analysis and describing the five phases. (Thanks to Luis Benitez for the link.)
1. Technology Trigger
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. Trough of Disillusionment
Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. Slope of Enlightenment
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. Plateau of Productivity
A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
So where do you think the various learning technologies we use fit in this model?
Have the LMS reached the Plateau of Productivity? Or is it still stuck in the Trough of Disillusionment?
What about various content authoring tools?
Do some of the more general technologies (e.g. wikis) fall in a different spot when looking at them as a learning tool?
Please share your thoughts and let us know what you think in the comments below.
LMS = trough of disillusionment
Content Authoring = slope of enlightenment
social media stuff as learning tools = slope of enlightenment (we are just figuring out how powerful these simple little tools are for the learning industry)
posted by glenn
July 27th, 2009
I"m wondering if the LMS is actually "obsolete before plateau". Wikis and the like have been stealthily climbing the "slope of enlightenment" since they missed most of the hype in the training world.
Social media: both up the "slope of enlightenment" and scaling the peak of inflated expectations. (Why "inflated"? See "social media => informal learning => "you can learn everything informally"...different levels of formality vs. informality vs. performance support map to different stages of understanding. Sometimes a small dose of formal instruction is the most efficient way to get you started, sometimes all you need is a small dose of informal to keep you going.)
I'm seeing some interesting applications of augmented reality (e.g. in museums) to explain, clarify, and add depth (so to speak.)
posted by Richard
July 27th, 2009